Rankings through December 3rd

The regular season and conference championships are in the books.  The BCS Championship pairing is now largely in the hands of the voters: Oklahoma State throttled Oklahoma but the computer rankings do not include margin of victory information, though of course Oklahoma State will still be helped greatly in the computers by the win over another highly-ranked team.  We'll know soon whether it was enough to get them back in the Championship picture or if we'll have an Alabama-LSU rematch.

The other BCS bowls hinge on some details of the BCS selection procedures. For instance (as discussed here), does TCU get high enough in the Standings to get an automatic bid, and does Michigan qualify for an at-large bid?  And then ultimately the BCS bowls make their own choices within those constraints.

Our rankings (at p=0.75) for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.

Rankings through December 4th

There will be little or no argument about which two teams most deserve to appear in the national championship game under the BCS rules: Auburn and Oregon.

But what about undefeated TCU? When we vary our bias parameter, as a proxy for various algorithmic ranking choices, TCU ranks between 3rd and 6th (as represented in the figure below).  Oklahoma, Stanford, and Missouri each rank ahead of TCU under some of the parameter values.

Do you know the last time TCU lost a regular season game? November 6th, 2008, by three points after giving up a last-minute TD to a Utah team that finished that season undefeated with a Sugar Bowl victory over Alabama. TCU went 11-2 that year, with their only other loss at the hands of Oklahoma, who finished that season losing in the BCS National Championship game. TCU then finished the 2009 season with a 12-1 record after losing the Fiesta Bowl to an undefeated Boise State, who broke the 4th quarter tie thanks in part to a gutsy fake punt. And now they're 12-0 in 2010.

Irrespective of whether TCU ends up undefeated after their bowl game, can't we just have playoffs already?

Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.

Rankings through November 14th

No big changes at the top of the RWFL rankings this week.

TCU solidified their position across various p bias values---if you look at the plot below the list of ranks, their win against Utah definitely helps in general, but still leaves them in fourth-place at the selected p=0.75 value posted here. This might help solidify TCU's narrowly-held #4 position in the BCS Standings, since they were already ahead of Cincinnati in both polls and should now do better than before in the computer component. But of course TCU will still be behind Texas in the BCS Standings, since they were already ahead of Texas in the composite of the computers and were still well behind Texas in the Standings.

That is, unless someone loses, we seem to be on course for a championship game between Texas and the winner of the Florida-Alabama "semifinal" SEC Championship game. TCU is on course for an automatic BCS bowl game berth; in contrast, Boise State's relatively weaker strength of schedule continues to leave them later in the discussion. Because of the wrinkles in the rules that only give one automatic BCS bid to the "non-AQ group", Boise State will possibly be hoping for one of the at-large bids, and those at-large bids do not have to follow the BCS Standings, as Boise State learned all too well last year when they watched a lower-rated Ohio State team take the last BCS bid.

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Saturday November 14th:
1. Alabama (10-0) [1.4580]
2. Florida (10-0) [1.3715]
3. Cincinnati (10-0) [1.1665]
4. TCU (10-0) [1.1513]
5. Georgia Tech (10-1) [1.1157]
6. Texas (10-0) [1.0832]
7. Boise St (10-0) [0.9626]
8. Oregon (8-2) [0.9185]
9. Pittsburgh (9-1) [0.8749]
10. Ohio State (9-2) [0.8747]
11. Iowa (9-2) [0.8048]
12. LSU (8-2) [0.7904]
13. Southern Cal (7-3) [0.7818]
14. Virginia Tech (7-3) [0.7656]
15. Miami FL (7-3) [0.7521]
16. Stanford (7-3) [0.7219]
17. Clemson (7-3) [0.7040]
18. Oregon St (7-3) [0.6998]
19. Oklahoma St (8-2) [0.6666]
20. Penn State (9-2) [0.6635]
21. Arizona (6-3) [0.6618]
22. Wisconsin (8-2) [0.6567]
23. North Carolina (7-3) [0.6480]
24. California (7-3) [0.6326]
25. Houston (8-2) [0.6094]
26. Utah (8-2) [0.5507]
27. Boston College (7-3) [0.5498]
28. Georgia (6-4) [0.5491]
29. Arkansas (6-4) [0.5351]
30. Navy (8-3) [0.5326]
31. Rutgers (7-2) [0.5299]
32. Brigham Young (8-2) [0.5200]
33. Mississippi (7-3) [0.5192]
34. Notre Dame (6-4) [0.5182]
35. West Virginia (7-3) [0.5174]
36. South Florida (6-3) [0.5016]
37. Auburn (7-4) [0.4948]
38. Florida St (5-5) [0.4892]
39. South Carolina (6-5) [0.4885]
40. Kentucky (6-4) [0.4662]
41. Nebraska (7-3) [0.4464]
42. Tennessee (5-5) [0.4407]
43. Temple (8-2) [0.4321]
44. Minnesota (6-5) [0.4253]
45. UCLA (5-5) [0.4175]
46. Central Michigan (8-2) [0.4161]
47. Northwestern (7-4) [0.4023]
48. Nevada (7-3) [0.4020]
49. Missouri (6-4) [0.4008]
50. Mississippi St (4-6) [0.4004]
51. Troy (7-3) [0.3978]
52. Washington (3-7) [0.3974]
53. Oklahoma (6-4) [0.3954]
54. Fresno St (6-4) [0.3905]
55. Central Florida (6-4) [0.3814]
56. Texas Tech (6-4) [0.3731]
57. SMU (6-4) [0.3699]
58. Michigan St (6-5) [0.3674]
59. Idaho (7-4) [0.3505]
60. East Carolina (5-4) [0.3505]
61. Air Force (7-4) [0.3443]
62. Wake Forest (4-7) [0.3439]
63. Connecticut (4-5) [0.3345]
64. Purdue (4-7) [0.3231]
65. Virginia (3-7) [0.3212]
66. Arizona St (4-6) [0.3201]
67. Middle Tennessee St (7-3) [0.3143]
68. Duke (5-5) [0.3137]
69. Southern Miss (6-4) [0.3070]
70. Iowa St (6-5) [0.3040]
71. North Carolina St (4-6) [0.2888]
72. Marshall (5-5) [0.2861]
73. Kansas St (6-5) [0.2809]
74. Texas A&M (5-5) [0.2760]
75. Baylor (4-6) [0.2692]
76. Ohio U. (7-3) [0.2686]
77. Northern Illinois (7-3) [0.2680]
78. Louisville (4-6) [0.2678]
79. Kansas (5-5) [0.2672]
80. Wyoming (5-5) [0.2672]
81. Michigan (5-6) [0.2657]
82. Bowling Green (5-5) [0.2629]
83. Syracuse (3-7) [0.2547]
84. Louisiana-Monroe (6-4) [0.2545]
85. Alabama-Birmingham (5-5) [0.2298]
86. Colorado St (3-7) [0.2291]
87. Indiana (4-7) [0.2266]
88. UNLV (4-7) [0.2246]
89. Illinois (3-7) [0.2220]
90. Maryland (2-8) [0.2139]
91. San Diego St (4-6) [0.2120]
92. Colorado (3-7) [0.2109]
93. Washington St (1-9) [0.1993]
94. Tulsa (4-5) [0.1976]
95. UTEP (3-7) [0.1941]
96. Toledo (4-6) [0.1931]
97. Vanderbilt (2-9) [0.1914]
98. Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5) [0.1894]
99. Hawai`i (4-6) [0.1863]
100. Louisiana Tech (3-7) [0.1856]
101. Kent St (5-5) [0.1831]
102. Tulane (3-7) [0.1678]
103. San Jose St (1-8) [0.1599]
104. Western Michigan (5-6) [0.1574]
105. Florida Int'l (3-7) [0.1571]
106. Buffalo (3-7) [0.1481]
107. Utah St (3-7) [0.1453]
108. Florida Atlantic (3-6) [0.1425]
109. New Mexico St (3-7) [0.1328]
110. Army (4-6) [0.1321]
111. Miami OH (1-10) [0.1248]
112. Memphis (2-8) [0.1102]
113. Akron (2-8) [0.1020]
114. North Texas (2-8) [0.0981]
115. Rice (1-9) [0.0951]
116. Arkansas St (2-7) [0.0923]
117. New Mexico (0-10) [0.0460]
118. Ball St (1-9) [0.0344]
119. Eastern Michigan (0-10) [0.0140]
120. Western Kentucky (0-10) [0.0125]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.6421
Pac10 0.5751
BigEast 0.5559
ACC 0.5422
Big10 0.4756
Big12 0.4145
FBSInd 0.3943
MWC 0.3939
WAC 0.3239
CUSA 0.2749
MAC 0.2004
SunBelt 0.1843
Non-FBS -0.0836