Post-Bowl Rankings

Last night's BCS Championship Game certainly settled things (and quickly). With their victory over Notre Dame complementing every else they've achieved this season, it is not surprising that Alabama has moved into #1 in these algorithmic rankings at most values of the bias parameter, p, as visualized below.

In closing out our rankings for the season, we once again say thank you to both Peter Wolfe and Kenneth Massey for making this task easier on all of us. Both are part of the official Bowl Championship Series standings. Wolfe provides the data in an easy-to-process form. Massey publishes the College Football Ranking Comparison, including the RWFL rankings at p=0.75 run on the full network of connected teams (where the rankings are broken out separately for the FBS and FCS).

Rankings through December 1st

Like all but one of the official BCS computer rankings, the (having nothing to do with the process) RWFL rankings have Florida at #2, not just at our selected p=0.75 bias parameter but at all values of p, despite Alabama's SEC Championship win over Georgia. But Florida is #4 in the polls, and rules are rules.

Speaking of rules being rules, with the title game set between Notre Dame and Alabama, the controversy is about Northern Illinois getting a BCS Bowl bid. Needing to finish ahead of only one automatic qualifying conference champion, they're ahead of two (FSU and Wisconsin), both in the official standings and in the RWFL rankings visualized below (where we even get an appearance from Div-II Minnesota State).

Rankings through November 24th

A few minor differences are evident when comparing the plot below with last week's figure; but on the whole, the trends are very similar. Florida continues to be the "surprise" #2 at all values of p in the RWFL rankings, but it would seem to be all but academic that the BCS title game will feature Notre Dame against the winner of the Alabama-Georgia SEC Championship Game. We will wait to see how much higher the winner of that game rises in the RWFL rankings.

Rankings through November 17th

Notre Dame and postseason-ineligible Ohio State are the only remaining unbeaten teams. The conventional wisdom this morning is that an Alabama-Georgia SEC Championship Game might well determine the team to play Notre Dame for the BCS Championship. Interestingly, Florida is currently the solid #2 in the RWFL system at all values of p below. But a one-loss SEC Champion team certainly makes a good argument for inclusion in the BCS Championship Game.

Rankings through November 10th

With Alabama's loss to Texas A&M, and the cycles of victories between different SEC teams, the top of the RWFL rankings appear much more complicated in this week's plot. Of course, for the purposes of the BCS, one fewer undefeated team might simplify things down the stretch.

Rankings through November 3rd

With the undefeateds all winning (some closer than others), the most striking change visible in the plot of the rankings below is the #1/#2 split between Notre Dame and Alabama (depending on the value of p). Our complete RWFL rankings (at p=0.75) will be posted at Kenneth Massey's College Football Rankings Comparison.

Rankings through October 27th

Last week's RWFL rankings had 10 undefeated teams in our top-16 plot. Now six undefeateds remain. Notre Dame moves into the #1 slot across all values of our bias parameter p. Kansas State is #2 at most values, swapping places with Alabama at high values.

Full disclosure details: The figure below only goes to a value of p slightly below the value 1. Going undefeated becomes more and more important as one approaches the value p=1 on the right edge of the plot. But we don't actually calculate exactly at p=1 because this is what a mathematician calls a singular limit, with multiple solutions at p=1. On the right edge of the plot, we are only interested in values of p strictly less than 1 but very close to 1. If we looked much closer there than we actually plot below, we would see FCS undefeated Lehigh would shoot up to 7th place on the extreme right edge of the figure.