Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Final Rankings 2015

Alabama has once again been crowned national champion after an exciting and competitive championship game. We don't do preseason rankings since the results on the field are the only factor that determines the Random Walker Rankings. So check back in towards the end of September 2016 for next season's rankings.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Bowl Game Predictions and Confidence Rankings

For those participating in a Bowl Mania type competition, below I list the RWFL predictions and confidence rankings for each of the bowl games. The predicted winners are simply the higher ranked teams, while the confidence rankings are set by ranking the difference in percentage of random walkers voting for each team.

The RWFL rankings correctly picked 25 of 42 games for a total confidence score of 580 out of a possible 903. For reference, in the ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania competition, the RWFL rankings finished at the 70.1% of all entries. The winner had a score of 789 after correctly picking 34 of 42 games and remarkably left the confidence levels in their default order based on the chronological ordering of bowl games.

WinnerLoserConfidence Score
AkronUtah St1
Oklahoma StMississippi2
CincinnatiSan Diego St3
Southern CalWisconsin4
Western KentuckySouth Florida5
Michigan StAlabama6
Washington StMiami FL7
Colorado StNevada9
MinnesotaCentral Michigan11
North CarolinaBaylor12
Winner of Cotton BowlWinner of Orange Bowl13
Virginia TechTulsa14
Georgia StSan Jose St15
Northern IllinoisBoise St18
HoustonFlorida St19
GeorgiaPenn State21
North Carolina A&TAlcorn St23
Ohio StateNotre Dame25
West VirginiaArizona St26
Arkansas StLouisiana Tech27
Appalachian StOhio U.28
ArizonaNew Mexico29
Western MichiganMiddle Tennessee St31
WashingtonSouthern Miss32
Bowling GreenGeorgia Southern33
Texas A&MLouisville34
Mississippi StNorth Carolina St37
ArkansasKansas St38
UtahBrigham Young39
CaliforniaAir Force40
LSUTexas Tech41

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Sunday, December 6, 2015

Final Regular Season Rankings for 2015

The field is set! After some tight finishes, there were no real upsets yesterday. Later today the CFP committee will announce that the 4 team playoff will include Michigan State, Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma. The only suspense will be the seeding and the teams for the other major bowl games. Stanford sealed its Rose Bowl berth but just missed out on a playoff berth as Pac-12 champ. But will they play Iowa or Ohio State? 

Back to the seedings if you look at the figure below, you can see that the rankings for the top 3 change around p=0.75. For p around 0.5, where strength of schedule is more important, Alabama and Michigan State are 1 and 2. However, for p around 1, where win-loss record is more important, Clemson and Alabama are 1 and 2. And in the middle, Michigan State is number 1 and briefly Alabama and Clemson are number 2. Our ranking system agrees that the seeding is not an obvious decision and will depend on what criteria you weight the most.

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Rankings through November 28, 2015

Another regular season is over for most teams as the main games next week are conference championship games. Iowa and Clemson both have an opportunity to complete perfect seasons though they both face tough conference championship games next week. The top 4 seems set barring an upset with Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and the winner of Iowa vs Michigan State. Ohio State and Stanford are hoping for an upset in the ACC and SEC championship games. Crazier things have happened...

Monday, November 23, 2015

Rankings through November 21, 2015

It will be an exciting last two weeks of the season with every spot in the playoff still up for grabs.  It seems like the SEC (Alabama or Florida), Big 10 (Iowa or Michigan State), and Big 12 (Oklahoma or Baylor) champions will all likely earn a spot. Clemson seems a lock if they can beat a tough North Carolina team. Does Notre Dame sneak in if they can beat Stanford next week? If so, who gets bumped? Thus far it seems like the monkeys like Iowa, Clemson, Alabama, and Oklahoma.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

Rankings through November 14, 2015

The top of our rankings remain steady while there were definitely some shake-ups in the 5-15 range. It was a rough night for the Pac-12 who almost certainly lost a playoff slot with losses by both Stanford and Utah. Additionally, the Big 12 got more complicated with Oklahoma upsetting Baylor.  Oklahoma State is now the remaining undefeated Big 12 team but they face Baylor and Oklahoma in the next two weeks. Notre Dame's chances to make the playoff are looking bright if they win out.

Sunday, November 8, 2015

Rankings through November 7, 2015

November started off with a bang with 4 top undefeated teams falling in LSU, TCU, MSU, and Memphis. Clemson has now claimed our top spot and Alabama #4, in agreement with last week's first college football playoff committee ranking. The biggest disparities now lie in our ranking's high regard for Iowa and low regard thus far for Ohio State and Baylor.  After the top teams from the B1G and the Big 12 will face off in the weeks to come, it will be interesting to see how things shake up.