tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25420923382990493152024-02-18T20:35:55.808-05:00Random Walker RankingsPeter J. Muchahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17499572584446709697noreply@blogger.comBlogger113125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-18005339201410258262018-01-10T01:14:00.000-05:002018-01-10T01:14:07.707-05:00Final Rankings 2017<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Another season, another national championship for Alabama and Nick Saban after a thrilling national championship game. However, after Central Florida completed an undefeated season by beating Auburn who beat both Alabama and Georgia, it is fair to wonder if Central Florida should be national champion or share the national championship with Alabama. Central Florida decided that they earned it and declared themselves national champions, threw a parade, and made the short trip to Disney World. Our rankings have them finishing at number 2 for most values of our parameter.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9gbmKqGspK1VlrZ6QdDfdMgUrHWy10dJVbP0T14QrxuAOW9vZkryYKZF5v9dOdhlkTdJM_TD8zcCUHc7nOKGPZSYDhmQu2BmPcpVnsenmc1_Zl4sJjQ9ilIfOddqSeoTvbiyNUiQNbvE/s1600/RWFL2017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9gbmKqGspK1VlrZ6QdDfdMgUrHWy10dJVbP0T14QrxuAOW9vZkryYKZF5v9dOdhlkTdJM_TD8zcCUHc7nOKGPZSYDhmQu2BmPcpVnsenmc1_Zl4sJjQ9ilIfOddqSeoTvbiyNUiQNbvE/s400/RWFL2017.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-55328468308913686702017-12-16T22:42:00.001-05:002018-01-10T00:30:37.987-05:00Bowl Game Predictions and Confidence Rankings 2017<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The college bowl games began today! For those who may be participating in a bowl game picking competition similar to ESPN's Capital One Bowl Mania, the following predictions and confidences are computed using the final regular season rankings.<br />
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I will update this post later with the winners/losers to see how it does.<br />
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Update: The bowls are complete and the results of the predictions are updated below. In ESPN's Capital One Bowl Mania, this entry finished at 94% of the entries in the competition with 551 points.<br />
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<table border="2" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3" style="width: 100%px;">
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<tr><th align="center">Winner</th><th align="center">Loser</th><th align="center">Confidence Score</th></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Louisville</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Mississippi St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">1</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Kansas St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">UCLA</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">2</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Boston College</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Iowa</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">3</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Temple</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Florida Int'l</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">4</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Texas</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Missouri</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Georgia St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Western Kentucky</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">6</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Marshall</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Colorado St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">7</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Navy</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Virginia</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">8</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Michigan St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Washington St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">9</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Arizona</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Purdue</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">10</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Middle Tennessee St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Arkansas St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">11</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Houston</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Fresno St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">12</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Utah St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">New Mexico St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">13</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">South Carolina</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Michigan</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">14</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Miami FL</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Wisconsin</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">15</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Stanford</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">TCU</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">16</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Penn State</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Washington</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">17</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">West Virginia</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Utah</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">18</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Ohio U.</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Alabama-Birmingham</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">19</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">North Carolina A&T</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Grambling St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">20</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Ohio State</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Southern Cal</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">21</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Central Michigan</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Wyoming</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">22</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Troy</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">North Texas</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">23</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Duke</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Northern Illinois</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">24</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Virginia Tech</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Oklahoma St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">25</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Boise St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Oregon</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">26</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Wake Forest</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Texas A&M</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">27</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Georgia</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Oklahoma</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">28</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">South Florida</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Texas Tech</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">29</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">SMU</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Louisiana Tech</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">30</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">San Diego St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Army</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">31</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">North Carolina St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Arizona St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">32</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Winner of Clemson/Alabama</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Winner of Georgia/Oklahoma</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">33</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Memphis</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Iowa St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">34</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Florida Atlantic</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Akron</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">35</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Florida St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Southern Miss</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">36</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Northwestern</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Kentucky</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">37</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Central Florida</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Auburn</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">38</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Toledo</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Appalachian St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">39</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Notre Dame</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">LSU</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">40</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Clemson</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Alabama</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">41</td></tr>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-50270196541587051052017-12-16T22:34:00.000-05:002017-12-16T22:34:13.900-05:00Final Regular Season Rankings of 2017<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Due to some technical difficulties with upgrading my operating system, the first post of the 2017 season unfortunately comes as the last ranking before the bowl games. The College Football Playoff matchups have been set to be #1 Clemson vs #4 Alabama and #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Georgia. Using our rankings, Alabama would not have made the cut and instead would be replaced with the only undefeated team, Central Florida. UCF is not even in the top 10 in the CFP rankings due to their perceived weak schedule. Interestingly, they are never lower than #3 in our rankings even as our parameter p goes to 0.5 where strength-of-schedule has the greatest emphasis. Central Florida will get a chance to prove themselves against Auburn, who gave both Alabama and Georgia their only losses of the season.</div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-42511875212221966542016-12-13T22:36:00.001-05:002016-12-13T22:38:20.420-05:00Bowl Game Predictions and Confidence Rankings 2016<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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With the bowl games set to start this Saturday, it's time to use the Random Walker Rankings to predict the winners. Additionally, following the ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania format, we have a confidence rank/score for each game, where 1 is least confident and 42 is most confident. Our predicted winners are the higher ranked teams and the confidence rank is based on the difference in percentage of walkers between the two teams.<br />
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As the games proceed, I will update this post with the results and tally the final score and how the Random Walkers entry does in the ESPN competition.<br />
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<table border="2" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3" style="width: 100%px;">
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<tr><th align="center">Winner</th><th align="center">Loser</th><th align="center">Confidence Score</th></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Appalachian St</td><td align="center">Toledo</td><td align="center">1</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Louisville</td><td align="center">LSU</td><td align="center">2</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">North Carolina Central</td><td align="center">Grambling St</td><td align="center">3</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Western Michigan</td><td align="center">Wisconsin</td><td align="center">4</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Memphis</td><td align="center">Western Kentucky</td><td align="center">5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Eastern Michigan</td><td align="center">Old Dominion</td><td align="center">6</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Tennessee</td><td align="center">Nebraska</td><td align="center">7</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Colorado St</td><td align="center">Idaho</td><td align="center">8</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Vanderbilt</td><td align="center">North Carolina St</td><td align="center">9</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Louisiana-Lafayette</td><td align="center">Southern Miss</td><td align="center">10</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Wyoming</td><td align="center">Brigham Young</td><td align="center">11</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Iowa</td><td align="center">Florida</td><td align="center">12</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Arkansas St</td><td align="center">Central Florida</td><td align="center">13</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Maryland</td><td align="center">Boston College</td><td align="center">14</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Middle Tennessee St</td><td align="center">Hawaii</td><td align="center">15</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Washington St</td><td align="center">Minnesota</td><td align="center">16</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">North Carolina</td><td align="center">Stanford</td><td align="center">17</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Colorado</td><td align="center">Oklahoma St</td><td align="center">18</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Troy</td><td align="center">Ohio U.</td><td align="center">19</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Utah</td><td align="center">Indiana</td><td align="center">20</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Georgia Tech</td><td align="center">Kentucky</td><td align="center">21</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Ohio State</td><td align="center">Clemson</td><td align="center">22</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Army</td><td align="center">North Texas</td><td align="center">23</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">West Virginia</td><td align="center">Miami FL</td><td align="center">24</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Mississippi St</td><td align="center">Miami OH</td><td align="center">25</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Oklahoma</td><td align="center">Auburn</td><td align="center">26</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Houston</td><td align="center">San Diego St</td><td align="center">27</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Virginia Tech</td><td align="center">Arkansas</td><td align="center">28</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Georgia</td><td align="center">TCU</td><td align="center">29</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">New Mexico</td><td align="center">Texas-San Antonio</td><td align="center">30</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Texas A&M</td><td align="center">Kansas St</td><td align="center">31</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Temple</td><td align="center">Wake Forest</td><td align="center">32</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Tulsa</td><td align="center">Central Michigan</td><td align="center">33</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Michigan</td><td align="center">Florida St</td><td align="center">34</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Navy</td><td align="center">Louisiana Tech</td><td align="center">35</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">South Florida</td><td align="center">South Carolina</td><td align="center">36</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Air Force</td><td align="center">South Alabama</td><td align="center">37</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Alabama/Washington winner</td><td align="center">Ohio State/Clemson winner</td><td align="center">38</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Pittsburgh</td><td align="center">Northwestern</td><td align="center">39</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Penn State</td><td align="center">Southern Cal</td><td align="center">40</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Boise St</td><td align="center">Baylor</td><td align="center">41</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center">Alabama</td><td align="center">Washington</td><td align="center">42</td></tr>
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</div>Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-9606000869810661282016-12-04T09:07:00.000-05:002016-12-04T09:07:07.407-05:00Final Regular Season Rankings of 2016<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, Washington, Western Michigan, and Oklahoma capped off their impressive seasons with conference championships this weekend. This presents the most challenging scenario for the College Football Playoff committee. Alabama and Clemson seem to have the strongest cases for the playoff, but Ohio State, Penn State, and Washington each have a very strong case for the final two spots. Michigan, Western Michigan, and Oklahoma also had great seasons that many could use as justification for an 8-team playoff.</div>
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The random walkers, who don't care about explicitly about conference championships or preseason favorites or school reputation, have Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Penn State as the top 4 teams for almost all parameter values. The only exceptions are that at low "p" values (where strength of schedule is most important), Washington moves into number 4 and Penn State falls to 5, and at high "p" values (where win-loss record is most important) undefeated Western Michigan moves into the top 4 while again Penn State falls out.</div>
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It will be interesting to see if the CFP committee agrees. I can see three possible outcomes, ranked below in order of likelihood:</div>
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1) "Eye test" wins out: Ohio State and Washington get in.</div>
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2) Conference championships and head-to-head win out: Penn State and Washington get in.</div>
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3) "Eye test" and stronger weighting towards late season results win out: Ohio State and Penn State (9 game win streak after starting 2-2) get in. This is how the random walkers would vote.</div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-84748265590982660342016-11-29T21:45:00.001-05:002016-11-29T21:45:28.977-05:00Rankings through November 26, 2016<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Alabama still reigns supreme while the Big 10 dominates the playoff discussion with 4 teams in our top 6. The result of "The Game" leads to a potential nightmare scenario for the playoff committee. Neither Ohio State nor Michigan qualified for the Big 10 championship game which will feature Penn State and Wisconsin. A Penn State win will mean that in addition to winning the Big 10, they will also have a head-to-head win over Ohio State. The committee would then have to choose between leaving Ohio State out, leaving out the Big 10 champion who beat Ohio State, or possibly leaving out one loss ACC or Pac 12 champions. The decision would be much easier if Penn State loses, Clemson loses, or Washington loses. I don't mention Alabama because I think they are guaranteed a spot no matter what happens in the SEC championship game.</div>
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I anticipate a lot of talk about an 8-team playoff over the next week. A possible approach would to give the Big 5 conference champions a spot plus a Group of 5 team and 2 at-large picks. This year I think that would look like Alabama, Clemson, Washington, Penn State/Wisconsin, Oklahoma/Oklahoma State, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan. </div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-74922636077901155712016-11-21T20:13:00.000-05:002016-11-21T20:13:28.654-05:00Rankings through November 19, 2016<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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After a fairly quiet week, with the exception of Louisville's upset loss and Ohio State's narrow escape, the rankings have mostly stayed the same. As we approach Rivalry Week, Ohio State vs Michigan, Washington vs Washington State, Alabama vs Auburn, and Clemson vs South Carolina loom large.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYsvhv1NmrGcfbX3F7tQm5mwzSFCpz-OFiPRn-WZTmbSLwhZrFYWdZCYYSYA3lyCFkzJK0_8jmnk_lZkatocsUx3mtlQsSacwaxlJD6iHy-pHgfyDnr6AdOOa0-r-j3rDlncp8rC9wHSg/s1600/RWFL2016.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYsvhv1NmrGcfbX3F7tQm5mwzSFCpz-OFiPRn-WZTmbSLwhZrFYWdZCYYSYA3lyCFkzJK0_8jmnk_lZkatocsUx3mtlQsSacwaxlJD6iHy-pHgfyDnr6AdOOa0-r-j3rDlncp8rC9wHSg/s400/RWFL2016.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-18443110200535184222016-11-13T09:26:00.003-05:002016-11-13T09:26:33.732-05:00Rankings thru November 12, 2016<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Now things get interesting! As we have almost every year, an upset-filled week throws everything off. With undefeated Clemson, Michigan, and Washington and 1-loss Texas A&M all losing to unranked or not highly ranked (in the case of USC) teams, that week finally arrived. And with the upset US presidential election result this week, I guess it was the appropriate time.</div>
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With regards to the CFP, only Alabama is secure. Clemson and the Ohio State/Michigan winner still seem likely but their margin of error is slim. Louisville now has new life and Washington will be sweating it out until the end because of their weak schedule.</div>
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One final observation from these rankings is that the Big 10 is looking like the dominant conference with spots 3-6, including two loss Penn State and Wisconsin ahead of several one loss teams. Wisconsin's two losses are to Ohio State and Michigan, while Penn State has lost only to Michigan and Pittsburgh (who just beat Clemson) while beating Ohio State. Thus the flow of random walkers is mostly staying among these four teams which helps support their rankings.</div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-41954652941170957872016-11-06T11:41:00.001-05:002016-11-06T11:41:22.965-05:00Rankings thru November 5, 2016<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Texas A&M's upset loss and Ohio State's blowout win of Nebraska were the big results of the weekend, but neither change the likely Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Michigan/Ohio State winner as the playoff selections. Last week, we were in perfect agreement on the ranking of the top 6 teams with the CFP. I doubt we will repeat that since Texas A&M only dropped to #6, but I expect the top 5 will agree.</div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-25157894781886898822016-10-30T09:57:00.001-04:002016-10-30T09:57:55.021-04:00Rankings through October 29, 2016<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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With the season's first College Football Playoff rankings set to be released on Tuesday, it is definitely time to check in with the random walker rankings to see where teams stand. Alabama is leaving right where they left off back in January with a dominant first half of the season. Currently Clemson, Washington, and the winner of the upcoming Michigan and Ohio State game also seem to be in great position for the top 4 playoff. But we still have over a month left in the season, so we should expect upsets to shuffle the landscape.</div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-86710271633912300032016-01-13T22:29:00.001-05:002016-01-13T22:29:07.160-05:00Final Rankings 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Alabama has once again been crowned national champion after an exciting and competitive championship game. We don't do preseason rankings since the results on the field are the only factor that determines the Random Walker Rankings. So check back in towards the end of September 2016 for next season's rankings.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfLVdLcwcsKCv1fOMTINvAtlU7RQGaqUnJgHkYQnCf8hfrOomaWjJ4mG2jm_qrSN3KgJVo5uOtTuZXZUr9pc6j-HJGyliuXr4Ca14lVSuOMiTwESiri8tK3L4kL8qgtGKVNvj-7XwL1Ow/s1600/RWFL2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfLVdLcwcsKCv1fOMTINvAtlU7RQGaqUnJgHkYQnCf8hfrOomaWjJ4mG2jm_qrSN3KgJVo5uOtTuZXZUr9pc6j-HJGyliuXr4Ca14lVSuOMiTwESiri8tK3L4kL8qgtGKVNvj-7XwL1Ow/s400/RWFL2015.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-4833204642866661842015-12-19T08:00:00.000-05:002016-01-12T09:48:27.166-05:00Bowl Game Predictions and Confidence Rankings<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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For those participating in a Bowl Mania type competition, below I list the RWFL predictions and confidence rankings for each of the bowl games. The predicted winners are simply the higher ranked teams, while the confidence rankings are set by ranking the difference in percentage of random walkers voting for each team.<br />
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The RWFL rankings correctly picked 25 of 42 games for a total confidence score of 580 out of a possible 903. For reference, in the ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania competition, the RWFL rankings finished at the 70.1% of all entries. The winner had a score of 789 after correctly picking 34 of 42 games and remarkably left the confidence levels in their default order based on the chronological ordering of bowl games.<br />
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<tr><th align="center">Winner</th><th align="center">Loser</th><th align="center">Confidence Score</th></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Akron</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Utah St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">1</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Oklahoma St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Mississippi</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">2</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Cincinnati</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">San Diego St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">3</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Southern Cal</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Wisconsin</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">4</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Western Kentucky</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">South Florida</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Michigan St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Alabama</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">6</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Washington St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Miami FL</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">7</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Connecticut</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Marshall</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">8</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Colorado St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Nevada</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">9</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Toledo</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Temple</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">10</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Minnesota</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Central Michigan</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">11</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">North Carolina</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Baylor</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">12</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Winner of Cotton Bowl</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Winner of Orange Bowl</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">13</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Virginia Tech</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Tulsa</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">14</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Georgia St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">San Jose St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">15</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Michigan</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Florida</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">16</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">TCU</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Oregon</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">17</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Northern Illinois</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Boise St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">18</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Houston</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Florida St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">19</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Indiana</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Duke</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">20</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Georgia</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Penn State</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">21</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Clemson</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Oklahoma</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">22</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">North Carolina A&T</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Alcorn St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">23</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Iowa</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Stanford</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">24</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Ohio State</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Notre Dame</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">25</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">West Virginia</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Arizona St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">26</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Arkansas St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Louisiana Tech</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">27</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Appalachian St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Ohio U.</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">28</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Arizona</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">New Mexico</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">29</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">UCLA</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Nebraska</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">30</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Western Michigan</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Middle Tennessee St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">31</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Washington</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Southern Miss</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">32</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Bowling Green</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Georgia Southern</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">33</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Texas A&M</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Louisville</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">34</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Navy</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Pittsburgh</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">35</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Memphis</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Auburn</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">36</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Mississippi St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">North Carolina St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">37</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Arkansas</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Kansas St</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">38</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Utah</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Brigham Young</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">39</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">California</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Air Force</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">40</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">LSU</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">Texas Tech</td><td align="center" style="background-color: green;">41</td></tr>
<tr><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Northwestern</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">Tennessee</td><td align="center" style="background-color: red;">42</td></tr>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-77206803130640445532015-12-06T07:32:00.000-05:002015-12-06T07:32:06.379-05:00Final Regular Season Rankings for 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The field is set! After some tight finishes, there were no real upsets yesterday. Later today the CFP committee will announce that the 4 team playoff will include Michigan State, Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma. The only suspense will be the seeding and the teams for the other major bowl games. Stanford sealed its Rose Bowl berth but just missed out on a playoff berth as Pac-12 champ. But will they play Iowa or Ohio State? </div>
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Back to the seedings if you look at the figure below, you can see that the rankings for the top 3 change around p=0.75. For p around 0.5, where strength of schedule is more important, Alabama and Michigan State are 1 and 2. However, for p around 1, where win-loss record is more important, Clemson and Alabama are 1 and 2. And in the middle, Michigan State is number 1 and briefly Alabama and Clemson are number 2. Our ranking system agrees that the seeding is not an obvious decision and will depend on what criteria you weight the most.</div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-18701143010597372732015-11-29T20:11:00.005-05:002015-11-29T20:11:52.748-05:00Rankings through November 28, 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Another regular season is over for most teams as the main games next week are conference championship games. Iowa and Clemson both have an opportunity to complete perfect seasons though they both face tough conference championship games next week. The top 4 seems set barring an upset with Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and the winner of Iowa vs Michigan State. Ohio State and Stanford are hoping for an upset in the ACC and SEC championship games. Crazier things have happened...</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK4fjElku1JQSQ0o6-THBucznW_iKiRMa3FCRbB8sYOFXSibR_E8twiodd8EarLfhX7j8Koct0mcm5bf3HiA3VC4qEQalnhP4FBwTSfUi_VBYgTJ_etJ__D0VsNyi3nJ27Tezg80PnjQ8/s1600/RWFL2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK4fjElku1JQSQ0o6-THBucznW_iKiRMa3FCRbB8sYOFXSibR_E8twiodd8EarLfhX7j8Koct0mcm5bf3HiA3VC4qEQalnhP4FBwTSfUi_VBYgTJ_etJ__D0VsNyi3nJ27Tezg80PnjQ8/s400/RWFL2015.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-5555935461736030632015-11-23T18:11:00.003-05:002015-11-23T18:11:57.130-05:00Rankings through November 21, 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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It will be an exciting last two weeks of the season with every spot in the playoff still up for grabs. It seems like the SEC (Alabama or Florida), Big 10 (Iowa or Michigan State), and Big 12 (Oklahoma or Baylor) champions will all likely earn a spot. Clemson seems a lock if they can beat a tough North Carolina team. Does Notre Dame sneak in if they can beat Stanford next week? If so, who gets bumped? Thus far it seems like the monkeys like Iowa, Clemson, Alabama, and Oklahoma.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfvve-0IWP4U5rwUzFNzwdWgpbgz3MxOJD3ycNneJsPtLPLmNcPqOQFGmD3o7CxqmGsXNoG0Wm-R-9QYVGjHFWfuLWpEaeElLJSzeBtmpok7esWXOUh-QJ3vZqcvjf0wmvBlrGPkA-wcE/s1600/RWFL2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfvve-0IWP4U5rwUzFNzwdWgpbgz3MxOJD3ycNneJsPtLPLmNcPqOQFGmD3o7CxqmGsXNoG0Wm-R-9QYVGjHFWfuLWpEaeElLJSzeBtmpok7esWXOUh-QJ3vZqcvjf0wmvBlrGPkA-wcE/s400/RWFL2015.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-37571835146745199212015-11-15T09:54:00.002-05:002015-11-15T09:54:16.073-05:00Rankings through November 14, 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The top of our rankings remain steady while there were definitely some shake-ups in the 5-15 range. It was a rough night for the Pac-12 who almost certainly lost a playoff slot with losses by both Stanford and Utah. Additionally, the Big 12 got more complicated with Oklahoma upsetting Baylor. Oklahoma State is now the remaining undefeated Big 12 team but they face Baylor and Oklahoma in the next two weeks. Notre Dame's chances to make the playoff are looking bright if they win out.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTZBLNHmMBsVzrAQoM07Se4g9sKcujwXF1aH4QAp9v_GyCtLS-vT5j4KbvsLu-9YGw4StaruC5tCpGvHORumSb8YyorWORS2JYGBLhufohOa76V7efc-Qe-R9Z3MkI-TA0M1V094-9NMo/s1600/RWFL2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTZBLNHmMBsVzrAQoM07Se4g9sKcujwXF1aH4QAp9v_GyCtLS-vT5j4KbvsLu-9YGw4StaruC5tCpGvHORumSb8YyorWORS2JYGBLhufohOa76V7efc-Qe-R9Z3MkI-TA0M1V094-9NMo/s400/RWFL2015.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-20584733696555710102015-11-08T09:28:00.003-05:002015-11-08T09:28:45.895-05:00Rankings through November 7, 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
November started off with a bang with 4 top undefeated teams falling in LSU, TCU, MSU, and Memphis. Clemson has now claimed our top spot and Alabama #4, in agreement with last week's first college football playoff committee ranking. The biggest disparities now lie in our ranking's high regard for Iowa and low regard thus far for Ohio State and Baylor. After the top teams from the B1G and the Big 12 will face off in the weeks to come, it will be interesting to see how things shake up.<br />
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-8124323324615687032015-11-02T20:11:00.000-05:002015-11-02T20:11:21.334-05:00Rankings through Oct 31, 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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There is not much change this week in the random walker rankings after a Halloween Saturday of football. There were some spooky close calls for Stanford and Michigan and an epic finish for Miami but no games that had significant influence on the rankings of the top teams.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXemPsD_XoT0w_YUlmHDT3LacjkmgKOkG6Ksnii-niGZJ0fkXEqM_T6vrgCcFjY9jWzQz4PCCrfTJ8Rp4eGhuatEcrH9kVIZ6kRQQ4B5gCJR3pSRilkLt1NXPN_SuaPmJeXnanMXWNg5g/s1600/RWFL2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXemPsD_XoT0w_YUlmHDT3LacjkmgKOkG6Ksnii-niGZJ0fkXEqM_T6vrgCcFjY9jWzQz4PCCrfTJ8Rp4eGhuatEcrH9kVIZ6kRQQ4B5gCJR3pSRilkLt1NXPN_SuaPmJeXnanMXWNg5g/s400/RWFL2015.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-62779860501406636352015-10-29T07:51:00.001-04:002015-10-29T07:51:49.005-04:00Random Walker Rankings through October 24, 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
With Utah's loss, we have a new #1 this week in Iowa. With Utah's easy remaining schedule, it will be interesting to see how long they can retain this spot as their schedule strength weakens while other teams' schedule strength grows.<br />
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-89204235826190213412015-10-18T22:54:00.001-04:002015-10-18T22:54:59.433-04:00Rankings through October 17, 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The Random Walker Rankings are back for 2015. We still have many undefeated teams thus far and as we'd expect, they dominate the top of our rankings. However, they may not be in the order many would expect, especially with Ohio State as the third highest team from the Big 10 and Memphis quite high in the rankings. After a heart-breaking loss for Michigan, they still remain high in the polls due to their two losses coming at the hands of our #1 and #4 ranked team.<br />
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-64925911120730281352014-12-07T21:56:00.001-05:002014-12-08T09:37:23.993-05:00Rankings through December 7, 2014<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The first playoff teams have been announced! After the top 6 teams from last week all won, the committee had a difficult decision between 6 conference champions in the 5 major conferences (with the TCU/Baylor co-champions in the "<a href="http://www.onetruechampion.org/" target="_blank">One True Champion</a>" Big 12. Ohio State's shockingly convincing defeat of Wisconsin was enough to jump ahead of TCU and Baylor and allowed the committee to avoid the uncomfortable decision of choosing between Baylor and TCU.</div>
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Our ranking system agrees with the committee's selection for the top 4, though in a different order. However, TCU is the last team out for most values of our parameter including the lower values where strength of schedule is more emphasized. Ole Miss, Baylor, and Arizona claim the #5 spot for larger values of our parameter p. </div>
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It's interesting to imagine what the BCS would have done this year. What two teams would have made the championship game? Would an undefeated FSU been left out? If not, would Alabama or Oregon get in? Though we cannot be sure since the Harris Interactive Poll no longer exists, a <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/12/7/7347525/college-football-rankings-top-25-playoff-ap-coaches" target="_blank">simulated BCS</a> ranks Alabama and FSU as the top 2. While it's great to have the top 4 instead of 2, we are again reminded that someone will always be left out. </div>
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It certainly will be exciting to see these 4 conference champions battle for the national championship on the field in January! </div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-55733182157226258372014-11-24T20:38:00.000-05:002014-11-24T20:38:21.372-05:00Rankings through November 22, 2014<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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We head into rivalry week with several very interesting games with definite championship implications. FSU has looked shaky and will probably be pushed to the brink again against Florida. Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas, and even Oregon State all have a chance to ruin the playoff dreams of their in-state rivals with at least 4 teams hoping that a slip at the top will vault them into the playoff. Rivalry games in the Pac-12 and B1G will determine who gets the to the conference championship games. It should be a great Thanksgiving weekend of football!</div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-79512885100785278282014-11-16T12:56:00.002-05:002014-11-16T12:56:44.319-05:00Rankings through November 15, 2014<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Alabama upended Mississippi State and claimed the number one spot in our ranking this week. Florida State (#3) and Marshall (#31) now remain as the only two undefeated teams yet neither is in the top two due to their perceived weak strength of schedule.</div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-83227179517641709352014-11-09T07:47:00.001-05:002014-11-09T07:47:05.208-05:00Rankings through November 8, 2014<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Wow! If the season ended today, the Random Walker rankings would pick Miss St. and Alabama for a national championship game. And it just so happens that they play each other next week! FSU and TCU seem to be in cruise control the rest of the season hoping that the SEC continues to beat up on itself. Oregon and Arizona St. also seem to be heading towards a matchup in the Pac 12 championship with the winner hoping to have a place in the playoff as well. There are still many great games to be played before the dust settles.</div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2542092338299049315.post-37412885651283914572014-11-02T19:19:00.004-05:002014-11-02T19:19:52.475-05:00Rankings through November 1, 2014<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The SEC continues its domination of our rankings with 5 of the top 7. It will be interesting to see if the SEC can somehow get two teams into the four team playoff. If so, there will be some unhappy people either in the Big 12 or Big 10 I'd imagine.</div>
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Thomas Callaghanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08223356261165967198noreply@blogger.com0