Sunday, November 28, 2010

Rankings through November 27th

With three undefeated teams left, the college football weekend that just concluded either set the table for BCS Championship clarity or chaos, as we await next week's SEC Championship and Oregon versus Oregon State. As has been clear for weeks now, if Auburn and Oregon win out, they'll meet for the Championship. If one of them loses, however, it's time for controversy: should TCU be given a shot at the title? But unless Auburn or Oregon lose next week, that will just be an academic argument (insert joke here about how that should be right up my alley).

Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.

Labels:

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Rankings through November 20th

With the top four teams in the BCS all off for the weekend, one doesn't expect much of a change at the top of the rankings. With most of the other highly-ranked teams winning, except Nebraska (previously BCS#8), there seems even less reason for change in algorithmic rankings. Yes, the debate continues about the relative rankings of the other one-loss teams, but the computer rankings used by the BCS don't factor in margin of victory (neither do we here).

So it is something of a surprise that the top of the plot below is so different from last week's figure. Obviously, we expect Nebraska to fall with a loss; but LSU used to be ahead of both TCU and Boise State for a wide range of "p values" (our bias parameter which influences the importance of strength of schedule and which serves as a very rough proxy for some different ranking systems).  That range where the strength of schedule of LSU, Stanford, and Missouri is enough here to put them ahead of Boise State has now narrowed in the left edge of the figure.  This is presumably in part because each of them beat teams with incoming records at .500 and below in conference this weekend; but I also suspect a variety of indirect effects in the developing network of wins and losses between teams.

Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.

Labels:

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Rankings through November 13th

Before another week went in the books, it briefly seemed not just possible but likely that BCS chaos was upon us, that is, before both Oregon and Auburn prevailed in their respective games.  As long as they both keep winning, the national championship picture will remain simple; but we saw again that a stumble is always possible, and both teams have two solid challenges in front of them.  As the saying goes, that's why they play the games.  If one or both indeed stumble, the "BCS busters" and the one-loss teams will all be there trying to stake their claims on a title shot.

Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.

Labels:

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Rankings through November 6th

As we make ourselves comfortable here in the month of November, the narratives of different possibilities start becoming clearer and the lobbying to get teams into the BCS championship ramps up.  The big results of the weekend impacting the top of the rankings include the wins by Oregon, TCU, and LSU.

Last week we linked to Ivan Maisel's argument that Oregon's seemingly poor computer ranking would be remedied down the stretch.  Again, we have nothing to do with the official BCS Standings; but the consideration of the whole family of random walker rankings (across various values of the bias parameter p) is an imperfect proxy for weighting outcomes and schedule strength in the computer rankings.  Comparing last week's plot of rank versus p with the plot from this week, Oregon is already in a much stronger position with the algorithms, and that's still before playing any of the three teams Maisel highlights.

Keep in mind that these rankings do not consider margin of victory (nor do any of the official computer rankings in the BCS Standings, by edict).  So indeed, Oregon would appear to hold their fate in their own hands.  Meanwhile, TCU did what they could to solidify their case, by knocking off previously undefeated Utah, while LSU continues to make itself part of the conversation.  If either Auburn or Oregon stumble down the stretch, we're going to have another season of BCS chaos.

Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.

Labels: