Sunday, November 29, 2009

Rankings through November 28th

With only one week left before the bowl bids, the teams at the very top just keep on winning. Meanwhile, losses among BCS bid hopefuls Oklahoma State and Pitt have helped to slightly clarify the at-large possibilities.

First, the obvious: the winner of the SEC Championship game next weekend between Florida and Alabama will appear in the National Championship game. The loser will get one of the three BCS at-large bids. Texas will be the other half of the National Championship game if they beat Nebraska for the Big 12 Championship. TCU will get a non-AQ-group automatic bid to a BCS bowl, leaving only two at-large bids left up for grabs.

If Texas loses next weekend, they will certainly get an at-large bid, and we're going to hear lots of controversy about who should play in the National Championship game: Texas, TCU, Cincinnati (if they beat Pitt in the de facto Big East title game), or Boise State (if they win their final regular season game).

Will Boise State get an at-large bid? Let's break it down very quickly by assuming for the present argument that no three-loss team is going to get a BCS bowl bid this year (though that assumption might not be safe). This way, we take Oregon, GT, and Pitt out of at-large contention: if they win, they win the automatic bids from their respective conferences. The remaining variables then are Texas, Cincinnati, the Big Ten at-large hopefuls, and of course, Boise State has to win their regular season finale (otherwise this discussion is moot).

Assuming Boise State wins next weekend and no three-loss team gets an at-large bid, the remaining scenarios are:

If Texas and Cincy both lose next weekend, they very likely take the two remaining at-large bids, though Boise State, Iowa & Penn State fans might not be too pleased with the Cincinnati selection. More importantly, the bowl games (who ultimately make the selections) might decide a different selection is more lucrative. In any case, this scenario is bad for Boise State.

If Cincy wins and Texas loses, Texas certainly takes an at-large bid, leaving one left to go to either Boise State, Iowa, or Penn State. If the split goes the other way (Texas wins and Cincy loses), then perhaps the Cincy selection isn't quite so certain, leaving two at-large bids to split among these teams. Does Boise State get one under this scenario? I have no idea. Note this might also end up depending on the other conference championship games, in that it might be hard to rationalize an Iowa/PennSt selection over a Boise State squad ranked, say, five spots higher in the BCS Standings; but if other teams fall, the rank-order gap might narrow significantly.

Finally, the good news for Boise State: if Texas and Cincy both win next weekend, they take their respective conferences' automatic bids, leaving two at-large bids remaining. In this scenario, an undefeated Boise State is all but certain to grab a BCS bid, since the Big Ten can only take one at-large bid (to either Iowa or Penn State). The only way to deny Boise State in this scenario is to give an at-large bid to a three-loss team. So the Broncos will be cheering for the Longhorns and Bearcats, and if all three win, it looks like we'll see two non-AQ group schools in the BCS games for the first time.

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Saturday November 28th:
1. Alabama (12-0) [1.4900]
2. Florida (12-0) [1.4155]
3. Cincinnati (11-0) [1.1452]
4. Texas (12-0) [1.0918]
5. TCU (12-0) [1.0246]
6. Boise St (12-0) [0.9648]
7. Oregon (9-2) [0.9501]
8. Georgia Tech (10-2) [0.9121]
9. Ohio State (10-2) [0.7874]
10. Virginia Tech (9-3) [0.7827]
11. LSU (9-3) [0.7669]
12. Miami FL (9-3) [0.7656]
13. Southern Cal (8-3) [0.7645]
14. Iowa (10-2) [0.7552]
15. Pittsburgh (9-2) [0.6931]
16. Oregon St (8-3) [0.6788]
17. California (8-3) [0.6785]
18. Stanford (8-4) [0.6565]
19. Penn State (10-2) [0.6446]
20. West Virginia (8-3) [0.6358]
21. Brigham Young (10-2) [0.6218]
22. North Carolina (8-4) [0.6187]
23. Oklahoma St (9-3) [0.6181]
24. Georgia (7-5) [0.6170]
25. Clemson (8-4) [0.6148]
26. Houston (10-2) [0.5983]
27. Arizona (7-4) [0.5967]
28. South Carolina (7-5) [0.5749]
29. Mississippi (8-4) [0.5728]
30. Arkansas (7-5) [0.5678]
31. Auburn (7-5) [0.5456]
32. Tennessee (7-5) [0.5430]
33. Wisconsin (8-3) [0.5170]
34. Nebraska (9-3) [0.5057]
35. Utah (9-3) [0.4952]
36. Kentucky (7-5) [0.4924]
37. Florida St (6-6) [0.4890]
38. South Florida (7-4) [0.4845]
39. Boston College (8-4) [0.4844]
40. Texas Tech (8-4) [0.4635]
41. Rutgers (8-3) [0.4605]
42. Missouri (8-4) [0.4569]
43. East Carolina (8-4) [0.4418]
44. Northwestern (8-4) [0.4401]
45. Oklahoma (7-5) [0.4367]
46. Troy (9-3) [0.4295]
47. Mississippi St (5-7) [0.4284]
48. Central Florida (8-4) [0.4237]
49. Navy (8-4) [0.4199]
50. UCLA (6-6) [0.4165]
51. Central Michigan (10-2) [0.4135]
52. Connecticut (6-5) [0.4011]
53. Fresno St (7-4) [0.3965]
54. Nevada (8-4) [0.3957]
55. Notre Dame (6-6) [0.3933]
56. Minnesota (6-6) [0.3872]
57. Washington (4-7) [0.3808]
58. Temple (9-3) [0.3637]
59. Ohio U. (9-3) [0.3557]
60. Middle Tennessee St (9-3) [0.3467]
61. SMU (7-5) [0.3434]
62. Wake Forest (5-7) [0.3420]
63. Texas A&M (6-6) [0.3256]
64. Michigan St (6-6) [0.3248]
65. North Carolina St (5-7) [0.3189]
66. Air Force (7-5) [0.3135]
67. Purdue (5-7) [0.3067]
68. Marshall (6-6) [0.3017]
69. Bowling Green (7-5) [0.2987]
70. Southern Miss (7-5) [0.2975]
71. Wyoming (6-6) [0.2968]
72. Idaho (7-5) [0.2954]
73. Syracuse (4-8) [0.2801]
74. Iowa St (6-6) [0.2788]
75. Arizona St (4-8) [0.2766]
76. Kansas St (6-6) [0.2754]
77. Virginia (3-9) [0.2729]
78. Duke (5-7) [0.2676]
79. Kansas (5-7) [0.2584]
80. Hawai`i (6-6) [0.2518]
81. UNLV (5-7) [0.2469]
82. Baylor (4-8) [0.2397]
83. Louisville (4-8) [0.2378]
84. Michigan (5-7) [0.2292]
85. Illinois (3-8) [0.2262]
86. Alabama-Birmingham (5-7) [0.2129]
87. Louisiana-Monroe (6-6) [0.2109]
88. Colorado (3-9) [0.2088]
89. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6) [0.2051]
90. Northern Illinois (7-5) [0.2041]
91. UTEP (4-8) [0.1987]
92. Utah St (4-8) [0.1975]
93. Vanderbilt (2-10) [0.1936]
94. Indiana (4-8) [0.1921]
95. Tulsa (5-7) [0.1916]
96. Maryland (2-10) [0.1891]
97. Florida Int'l (3-8) [0.1875]
98. San Diego St (4-8) [0.1832]
99. Washington St (1-11) [0.1824]
100. Louisiana Tech (3-8) [0.1811]
101. Colorado St (3-9) [0.1793]
102. Buffalo (5-7) [0.1768]
103. Toledo (5-7) [0.1691]
104. San Jose St (2-9) [0.1567]
105. Tulane (3-9) [0.1565]
106. Florida Atlantic (4-7) [0.1515]
107. Kent St (5-7) [0.1509]
108. Army (5-6) [0.1361]
109. Rice (2-10) [0.1264]
110. Western Michigan (5-7) [0.1248]
111. New Mexico St (3-9) [0.1220]
112. Memphis (2-10) [0.1167]
113. Arkansas St (3-8) [0.1092]
114. Miami OH (1-11) [0.1084]
115. New Mexico (1-11) [0.1035]
116. Akron (3-9) [0.1004]
117. North Texas (2-10) [0.0790]
118. Ball St (2-10) [0.0631]
119. Western Kentucky (0-11) [0.0062]
120. Eastern Michigan (0-12) [-0.0022]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.6840
Pac10 0.5581
BigEast 0.5423
ACC 0.5048
Big10 0.4373
Big12 0.4300
MWC 0.3850
WAC 0.3290
FBSInd 0.3164
CUSA 0.2841
MAC 0.1944
SunBelt 0.1917
Non-FBS -0.0825

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2 Comments:

At December 2, 2009 at 10:47 AM , Blogger Jesse B said...

Hey, what about Virginia Tech? It seems in your RW rankings, they should get the bid over Iowa or PSU.

 
At December 5, 2009 at 1:47 PM , Blogger Peter J. Mucha said...

Re: VT, I'm having a hard time imagining that a BCS bowl is going to give an at-large bid this year to a team that has 3 losses. Of course, we'll see how it shakes out soon.

 

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