Final Rankings 2017

Another season, another national championship for Alabama and Nick Saban after a thrilling national championship game. However, after Central Florida completed an undefeated season by beating Auburn who beat both Alabama and Georgia, it is fair to wonder if Central Florida should be national champion or share the national championship with Alabama. Central Florida decided that they earned it and declared themselves national champions, threw a parade, and made the short trip to Disney World. Our rankings have them finishing at number 2 for most values of our parameter.

Bowl Game Predictions and Confidence Rankings 2017

The college bowl games began today! For those who may be participating in a bowl game picking competition similar to ESPN's Capital One Bowl Mania, the following predictions and confidences are computed using the final regular season rankings.

I will update this post later with the winners/losers to see how it does.

Update: The bowls are complete and the results of the predictions are updated below. In ESPN's Capital One Bowl Mania, this entry finished at 94% of the entries in the competition with 551 points.

Winner	Loser	Confidence Score
Louisville	Mississippi St	1
Kansas St	UCLA	2
Boston College	Iowa	3
Temple	Florida Int'l	4
Texas	Missouri	5
Georgia St	Western Kentucky	6
Marshall	Colorado St	7
Navy	Virginia	8
Michigan St	Washington St	9
Arizona	Purdue	10
Middle Tennessee St	Arkansas St	11
Houston	Fresno St	12
Utah St	New Mexico St	13
South Carolina	Michigan	14
Miami FL	Wisconsin	15
Stanford	TCU	16
Penn State	Washington	17
West Virginia	Utah	18
Ohio U.	Alabama-Birmingham	19
North Carolina A&T	Grambling St	20
Ohio State	Southern Cal	21
Central Michigan	Wyoming	22
Troy	North Texas	23
Duke	Northern Illinois	24
Virginia Tech	Oklahoma St	25
Boise St	Oregon	26
Wake Forest	Texas A&M	27
Georgia	Oklahoma	28
South Florida	Texas Tech	29
SMU	Louisiana Tech	30
San Diego St	Army	31
North Carolina St	Arizona St	32
Winner of Clemson/Alabama	Winner of Georgia/Oklahoma	33
Memphis	Iowa St	34
Florida Atlantic	Akron	35
Florida St	Southern Miss	36
Northwestern	Kentucky	37
Central Florida	Auburn	38
Toledo	Appalachian St	39
Notre Dame	LSU	40
Clemson	Alabama	41

Final Regular Season Rankings of 2017

Due to some technical difficulties with upgrading my operating system, the first post of the 2017 season unfortunately comes as the last ranking before the bowl games. The College Football Playoff matchups have been set to be #1 Clemson vs #4 Alabama and #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Georgia. Using our rankings, Alabama would not have made the cut and instead would be replaced with the only undefeated team, Central Florida. UCF is not even in the top 10 in the CFP rankings due to their perceived weak schedule. Interestingly, they are never lower than #3 in our rankings even as our parameter p goes to 0.5 where strength-of-schedule has the greatest emphasis. Central Florida will get a chance to prove themselves against Auburn, who gave both Alabama and Georgia their only losses of the season.

Bowl Game Predictions and Confidence Rankings 2016

With the bowl games set to start this Saturday, it's time to use the Random Walker Rankings to predict the winners. Additionally, following the ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania format, we have a confidence rank/score for each game, where 1 is least confident and 42 is most confident. Our predicted winners are the higher ranked teams and the confidence rank is based on the difference in percentage of walkers between the two teams.

As the games proceed, I will update this post with the results and tally the final score and how the Random Walkers entry does in the ESPN competition.

Winner	Loser	Confidence Score
Appalachian St	Toledo	1
Louisville	LSU	2
North Carolina Central	Grambling St	3
Western Michigan	Wisconsin	4
Memphis	Western Kentucky	5
Eastern Michigan	Old Dominion	6
Tennessee	Nebraska	7
Colorado St	Idaho	8
Vanderbilt	North Carolina St	9
Louisiana-Lafayette	Southern Miss	10
Wyoming	Brigham Young	11
Iowa	Florida	12
Arkansas St	Central Florida	13
Maryland	Boston College	14
Middle Tennessee St	Hawaii	15
Washington St	Minnesota	16
North Carolina	Stanford	17
Colorado	Oklahoma St	18
Troy	Ohio U.	19
Utah	Indiana	20
Georgia Tech	Kentucky	21
Ohio State	Clemson	22
Army	North Texas	23
West Virginia	Miami FL	24
Mississippi St	Miami OH	25
Oklahoma	Auburn	26
Houston	San Diego St	27
Virginia Tech	Arkansas	28
Georgia	TCU	29
New Mexico	Texas-San Antonio	30
Texas A&M	Kansas St	31
Temple	Wake Forest	32
Tulsa	Central Michigan	33
Michigan	Florida St	34
Navy	Louisiana Tech	35
South Florida	South Carolina	36
Air Force	South Alabama	37
Alabama/Washington winner	Ohio State/Clemson winner	38
Pittsburgh	Northwestern	39
Penn State	Southern Cal	40
Boise St	Baylor	41
Alabama	Washington	42

Final Regular Season Rankings of 2016

Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, Washington, Western Michigan, and Oklahoma capped off their impressive seasons with conference championships this weekend. This presents the most challenging scenario for the College Football Playoff committee. Alabama and Clemson seem to have the strongest cases for the playoff, but Ohio State, Penn State, and Washington each have a very strong case for the final two spots. Michigan, Western Michigan, and Oklahoma also had great seasons that many could use as justification for an 8-team playoff.

The random walkers, who don't care about explicitly about conference championships or preseason favorites or school reputation, have Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Penn State as the top 4 teams for almost all parameter values. The only exceptions are that at low "p" values (where strength of schedule is most important), Washington moves into number 4 and Penn State falls to 5, and at high "p" values (where win-loss record is most important) undefeated Western Michigan moves into the top 4 while again Penn State falls out.

It will be interesting to see if the CFP committee agrees. I can see three possible outcomes, ranked below in order of likelihood:

1) "Eye test" wins out: Ohio State and Washington get in.

2) Conference championships and head-to-head win out: Penn State and Washington get in.

3) "Eye test" and stronger weighting towards late season results win out: Ohio State and Penn State (9 game win streak after starting 2-2) get in. This is how the random walkers would vote.

Rankings through November 26, 2016

Alabama still reigns supreme while the Big 10 dominates the playoff discussion with 4 teams in our top 6. The result of "The Game" leads to a potential nightmare scenario for the playoff committee. Neither Ohio State nor Michigan qualified for the Big 10 championship game which will feature Penn State and Wisconsin. A Penn State win will mean that in addition to winning the Big 10, they will also have a head-to-head win over Ohio State. The committee would then have to choose between leaving Ohio State out, leaving out the Big 10 champion who beat Ohio State, or possibly leaving out one loss ACC or Pac 12 champions. The decision would be much easier if Penn State loses, Clemson loses, or Washington loses. I don't mention Alabama because I think they are guaranteed a spot no matter what happens in the SEC championship game.

I anticipate a lot of talk about an 8-team playoff over the next week. A possible approach would to give the Big 5 conference champions a spot plus a Group of 5 team and 2 at-large picks. This year I think that would look like Alabama, Clemson, Washington, Penn State/Wisconsin, Oklahoma/Oklahoma State, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan. 

Rankings through November 19, 2016

After a fairly quiet week, with the exception of Louisville's upset loss and Ohio State's narrow escape, the rankings have mostly stayed the same. As we approach Rivalry Week, Ohio State vs Michigan, Washington vs Washington State, Alabama vs Auburn, and Clemson vs South Carolina loom large.